The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) on Friday estimated that the Peruvian economy may have grown between 12% and 15% last July over the same month of 2020 due to a statistical effect.
"Last year, GDP in the month of July fell 11.1%. Let us remember that in June (2020) it experienced a decline of 18%. Taking that figure of -11.1% into account, what we would be estimating for the month of July (this year) is a variation which ranges between 12% and 15%," said
BCR Economic Studies Central Manager Adrian Armas.
Armas argued that Peru's economic activity is close to the
pre-pandemic level, although the sectors most intensive in human contact are the most affected by COVID-19.
He indicated that —as of the second quarter of 2021— Peru's economy is one that is the closest to its pre-pandemic level in 2019.
"A differentiated evolution can be observed. For example,
sectors such as construction and non-primary manufacturing are well above the levels that were registered two years ago," he highlighted.
Leading indicators
The BCR official indicated that most of the economic activities' leading indicators remained slightly below their pre-pandemic levels in July and August.
He also explained that —in order to observe the real evolution of economic activity— it is better to compare sectors' growth rates with those of the months prior to the pandemic, and —in the case of July— with the 2019 records.
On the other hand, the BCR official considered that a more pronounced recovery in world economic activity is expected for the coming quarters, as the vaccination process continues around world, as do significant fiscal stimulus programs in developed countries.